Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
