Just 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach scolded him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. When Rogers curled home his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard question to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have stacked up.
As per the data, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side that have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition registered more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the player he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought Rogers now would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
